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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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