Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.