Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics
The typical number of daily murders per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide data might not point to improved countrywide safety.
Marked Drop in Per-Day Numbers
There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was provided by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The figures in murders that we have seen during these past months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the least amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.
Recent Background and Official Plan
Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.
That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides this year.
At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
- Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.
Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations
Nevertheless, security experts warned that using murder data to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“It would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.
“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”
Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it may hide periods when there were notably high levels of murders.
“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.
Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success
An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.
“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Societal Anger
However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.
Weeks after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.